Robotics Industry Expected to Thrive in 2013

As the American economy, and that of the world, continues its recovery from the Great Recession, the robotics industry is reaping the benefits.industrial robot users, integrators and manufacturers have an optimistic outlook for the robotics industry in 2013.

"2013 will be a good year for the robotics industry but not as good as 2011 and 2012. The industrial robots industry market has been on a serious growth trend since 2009", says Robert Little, Chief Executive Officer of ATI Industrial Automation .“Growth will continue through 2013 but not at the same rate of 20 percent seen in 2012. I hope to see 10 to 15 percent growth in 2013.”

Little’s analysis is typical of his peers in the industrial robots industry. Across applications and regions of the world, the robotics industry can look forward to a robust 2013.

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Most players in the industrial robots industry are sanguine on the prospects of nearly all applications in 2013. "I think 2013 will be awesome. General industry is historically two years behind the rebound of the automotive industry, following an economic downturn. The automotive industry did not buy anything for a few years then came on strong," says Edward Minch, Automotive Group Director of Sales and Engineering at Kawasaki Robotics (USA) Inc. "General industry is taking care of capital investment it ignored during the recession."

John Bubnikovich, Executive Director of Marketing and Business Development at ABB Inc. speaks of the continuing role of the automotive sector within the robotics industry. "The automotive sector still accounts for 65 percent of the North American robotics market. Automotive's revitalization has been very influential in the great bounce-back the robotics industry has seen recently."

Bubnikovich goes on to say, “Robotic laser cutting is emerging as an optimal means to cut and trim hot-stamped steel, a light weight, high strength material increasingly used in the automotive industry to reduce the overall cost and weight of cars while improving passenger safety and fuel economy."

Bin picking is one application several leaders in the robotics industry have high hopes for in 2013. “I see rapid expansion of three-dimensional bin picking, the ability to retrieve randomly arranged products from a bin,” says John Burg, President of Ellison Technologies Automation (Council Bluffs, Iowa).

Terry Zarnowski, Director of Sales and Marketing with Schneider Packaging Equipment Co. Inc. (Brewerton, New York) has a similar outlook for the prospects of bin picking in 2013. "Bin picking is now a viable reality."

Minch sees advancements in vision technology combined with improved force sensing, as one of numerous bright spots for the robotics industry. "These advancements will help the robotics industry penetrate into new markets, such as consumer electronic equipment and automotive component assembly and random bin picking. Robots can 'see' and have a sense of touch. Force sensors use feedback from servomotors to tell how hard the robot is pushing on a part during assembly processes such as driving a screw."

Random bin picking is high on Estes' to-do list in 2013. "Bin picking applications will become more robust due to better sensor technology. End-users want automated bin picking but did not have the tools to get there until now. Bin picking will continue to grow in 2013." Estes adds, "Because of the flexibility robotics offer, improvements to vision systems and bin picking, a batch of one is close to becoming a reality."

The food and beverage side of the robotics industry has a favorable outlook in 2013, particularly those relating to packaging and palletizing, says, Stuart Cooper, Vice President of Sales with Flexicell Inc. (Ashland, Virginia). "2013 will be a good year for the robotics industry. The return on investment in packing and palletizing applications is favorable. I anticipate accelerated growth in 2013 and do not see any markets within the industrial robots industry declining."

Contraction Forecast for the Global Motion Control Market in 2012

Sales of motion control products have decreased in 2012 in China as a result of overcapacity, and the global motion controls market is forecast to decline by 1.9 percent compared to 2011, according to a study recently published by IMS Research. In 2013, the global motion control market is projected to rebound with revenue growth of nearly 5 percent spurred by recovery of the Chinese market but limited by the continued Eurozone recession.

In recent years, the global motion controls market grew strongly with revenues increasing over 20 percent in both 2010 and 2011 to reach an estimated value of $13.1 billion. 2012 presented a very different situation, with the Eurozone recession and softening of the Chinese economy causing motion control products sales to fall well below expectations.

IHS Analyst Michelle Figgs explains, “The biggest surprise in 2012 is the extent of the contraction in the Chinese motion control market, where revenues are forecast to decline an estimated 16.5 to 18.5 percent. Reduced order rates have resulted from overcapacity concerns and conservative buying patterns from machine builders.”

Sales of low-end servo products in China have been most affected, impacting the Chinese and Japanese suppliers who rely heavily on this market. The market for high-end servo products is more stable.

In the rest of Asia, excluding Japan, revenues from sales of motion control products are projected to grow by over 5 percent in 2012. “Growth will be driven by the Indian, South Korean and Taiwanese markets,” comments Figgs. “However, the total Asian market (excluding Japan) is forecast decline by nearly 10 percent because China accounts for the majority of revenues.”

The motion controls markets in the Americas, EMEA and Japan are projected to maintain revenue growth in 2012, though at much lower rates than what was observed in the prior two years. The American market is the fastest growing, with growth projected at 4.2 percent, followed by the EMEA market at 1.6 percent. Due to a struggling semiconductor industry, the Japanese motion control market is projected to grow only 0.5 percent in 2012. 

The Market for Small-Payload Industrial Robot Grows

The world market for industrial robots was worth an estimated $8.2 billion in 2011 according to IMS Research. Around 68 percent of revenues were for articulated robot, and two-thirds of this were for robots designed for use in applications requiring a payload of above 15kg.
To-date, industrial robots have typically been used for heavy-duty applications such as welding, palletising and assembly. However, in recent years there have been significant advances in machine vision, sensing and gripping, which has enabled robots to start being used in new industrial applications and unfamiliar sectors. The food, beverage and personal care and consumer electronics industries are forecast to be the two fastest growing sectors for industrial robots from 2011 to 2016, growing at an average annual rate 8.6 percent and 8.0 percent respectively. Lower payload applications are generally more common in these industries.

Kiran Patel, analyst at IMS Research explains, “The consumer electronics industry is characterised by many labour-intensive assembly processes. Traditionally, work has been carried out by hand in regions of low labour cost, such as China. In recent years, wages have been rising per year in term of U.S. dollars (around 14 percent according to Chinese government statistics); also young people are more likely to enter further education than pursue industrial apprenticeships. Consequently, labour has become more scarce and expensive. Patel continues “The interest in industrial robots has increased in labour-intensive industries as companies look to automate and cut costs. Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has announced that it plans to deploy one million industrial robots in its plants in 2-3 years. Whether or not this does come into fruition is another question but this certainly points towards the growing application of industrial robots in the industry, especially in articulated robot.”

In the food and beverage industry, greater purchase of robots has more to do with the fact that it is an industry that fluctuates less with changes in general economic activity. With economic uncertainty continuing in the Eurozone, manufacturers of industrial robots do not want all their revenues to come from automotive industry (which is one of the most sensitive to the rise and fall of the general economy). Manufacturers of robots have reacted by offering robots with a high protection class, making them applicable to food and beverage production.

IMS Research predicts that from 2011 to 2016, revenues from articulated robots with a payload of below 15kg will grow on average by 6 percent a year. Investment in automating production of food & beverages and of consumer electronics will be the main contributors to this growth.

Chinese Market for Low Voltage AC Motor Drives and DC Motor Drives Enters Period of Steady Growth

According to a recent IMS Research study, The Chinese Market for Low Voltage Motor Drives - 2012 Edition, revenue growth in this market slowed considerably in 2011 from an abnormally high 2010. Revenues from motor drives (excluding software and services) are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7 percent from 2010 to 2015.

The total Chinese market for low-voltage AC & DC motor drives (including software and services) was estimated at $2.68 billion in 2010. The Chinese Government’s RMB 4000 billion stimulation policy and other domestic consumption policies enabled healthy growth in the market to continue from 2009 to 2010.

“In the first half of 2011, the markets for low voltage motor drives were still growing strongly. In the second half of 2011, as the Chinese Government tightened monetary policies and imposed strict lending conditions; this caused delays in numerous large projects, such as high-speed railways, city metros, highways, and factory renovation projects. These policies are also causing financial strain for both end users and machine builders”, commented Wilmer Zhou, senior analyst and report author. In June 2011, the market went into a precipitous decline. The bad news first came from local small and medium machine builders in South and East China; many reported no new orders during the second half of the year and many small machine builders went bankrupt and closed. The low-voltage motor drive market has been more affected than that for the medium-voltage drives, because of its greater dependence on machine builders. Nevertheless, with $3.1 billion in revenues in 2011, China still accounted for 25 percent of the world market for low voltage motor drives.

The new report found that ABB and Siemens were the market leaders in the Chinese low voltage motor drive market in 2011, with 16 percent and 13 percent share respectively. Market leadership is concentrated, as the top five suppliers accounted for nearly 46 percent of the total. However, there is a large tail of suppliers, each with less than 1 percent of the total revenues. Wilmer states, “Because of the Japanese earthquake, component shortages, and other reasons such as the appreciation of the Japanese Yen in 2011, European and local Chinese suppliers are taking share from several Japanese suppliers.”

Growth in the Chinese market will continue, because of implementation of policies regarding motor  and motor driver efficiency and energy-saving renovations in various industries. But market growth will be at a lower rate than in the past few years as investment is reduced in the near future, with concerns over high inflation in China.